Paper by Mina Sami, Dina Abdel Fattah, and Mona Said
This paper aims to assess the impact that events of unexpected instability have on internal migration. Conspicuously, the study measures the impact of two main instability events: terror attacks and political attacks. Three main datasets have been complied to reach the objective of the study: the Egyptian Labor Market Survey (ELMPS, 2012), the Global Terrorism Database (GTD), and the statistical database of the Egyptian Revolution (SDER).
Based on the properties of conditional and mixed logistic regression econometric models, the results show that (a) internal migration is an optimal choice for citizens in poor and developing countries as a response to events of unexpected instability. (b) In a given Egyptian governorate, each one person killed during an unexpected terror attack or political event is associated with higher migration to other governorates.
This study is considered as a prior research (a) shows that people of developing countries will not respond in the same manner to unexpected instability events, as the poor people of those countries might not be able to afford the costs of international migration. Therefore, internal migration will be the alternative affordable and legal solution (b) includes unexpected events as one of the determinants of internal migration.